2024 Presidential Winner Prediction. Allan lichtman, historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year's. One of the most accurate election forecasters in 2020 and 2022.

Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning each. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election.